Cable's big break: Winning in 18-49s

Now beating broadcast in the desired demo

By Kevin Downey Dec 9, 2005

The broadcast networks are accustomed to the drill by now, but familiarity certainly doesn’t make this latest setback any easier.Having lost its dominance in household ratings to cable television nearly four years ago, network TV is now losing its dominance in the 18-49 demographic that broadcasters rely on for a good chunk of revenue.Ad-supported cable TV for the first time ever at this point in the season is beating broadcast in 18-49s.

Cable has been ahead of broadcast for a week or two early in the season, but it’s never held onto that lead this late in the fall before.

Cable TV’s share of the 18-49 audience in primetime through the first 11 weeks of the season is 42.3 percent, compared to network TV’s 41.7 percent, according to a year-end ratings analysis issued on Wednesday by Time Warner’s Turner Broadcasting. Cable is up from 40.5 percent the same time last season while the broadcasters have dipped from 42.8 percent.

What makes it all the more troubling is that it comes at a time when network TV is going through what some media people call a renaissance.ABC’s ratings, of course, are rebounding with hits like “Desperate Housewives,” “Lost” and “Grey’s Anatomy.” CBS trails No. 1-ranked ABC by only one-tenth of a point in the demographic it had long struggled to attract. Fox had its first season-long win in 18-49s in 2004-'05 and, with “American Idol” returning next month, may very well do the same this year.Even NBC, with its dramatic ratings declines, has come out of a sitcom drought with hit “My Name is Earl.”

But, no matter, cable TV is continuing to chip away at the broadcast audience.“This does not surprise me, particularly the aggregate [ratings], because cable has a lot more programs for people to surf around within than the big six broadcast networks,” says Susan Hajny, broadcast research manager at GSD&M.“The younger demographic is more apt to be a channel-surfing demographic and it’s also more apt to be a program viewer as opposed to a network viewer.”

Cable’s climb has been steady and dramatic. In fact, at this point in the 2000-'01 season, cable’s share in the demographic was 33.9 percent to the networks’ 49.1 percent.Meanwhile, Turner reports that cable’s most-watched networks among adults 18-49 for the year so far are TNT, USA, TBS, ESPN, Spike, Lifetime, FX, MTV, Sci Fi and Comedy Central. Each network except ESPN and MTV is up from last year.Still, the broadcast networks can take consolation in remaining the dominant of the two in ad revenue.

While the broadcaster’s share of the household audience in primetime this year is 42 percent, its share of ad revenue is 69 percent. Ad-supported cable’s household share is 55 percent, but Turner estimates that its share of advertising is only 31 percent.That is directly linked to the continuing disparity between top-rated network and cable shows.Advertisers have few options outside of network TV to reach many millions of 18-49s in one shot. Individual cable programs aren’t making much headway in generating comparable numbers.

As a point of comparison, network’s most-watched show in 18-49s is “Desperate Housewives,” reaching an average 14.3 million people for the week ending Dec. 4. Cable’s top original series so far this year is FX’s “Nip/Tuck,” which averaged a sizeable but relatively paltry 2.6 million viewers.

“There are exceptions, there are cable programs that pop, but for the most part the networks are still providing the reach vehicles,” says Hajny. “And they have the big-rated shows like ‘Desperate’ that provide potential for reach and that have a higher dollar value than several smaller networks.”

Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life