Milestone: Cable Widens Lead in 18-49s
From Media Life, April 21, 2006By Kevin Downey
“Every year, more of the audience shifts from broadcast to cable, but recently cable has been picking up steam because of original programming, as opposed to the 1990s when it was due to coverage gains.” John Spiropoulos, V.P., MediaVest.
With just weeks to go before the upfront market breaks, the broadcast networks are facing yet more bad news: Their long dominance among adults 18-49 is all but over.For the first time, ad-supported cable can claim a larger share of the coveted 18-49 audience in primetime for the broadcast season through late March.
Further, broadcast’s prospects for reclaiming that lead in the last weeks of the season appear slight, all but ensuring cable’s first season win ever in the demographic.Much of cable’s rising share can be attributed to its own growth, as it commands increasing amounts of viewers’ attention.
But it also reflects the broadcast networks’ faltering on key nights. NBC’s 25 percent dip and CBS’s 7 percent decline on Thursdays this year, for example, have opened things up for cable on a night that was long the most powerful of the week for broadcast.
Cable’s share of the 18-49 audience is up to 42 percent for the period Sept. 19 through March 26, from 41 percent during the same timeframe last year. The six broadcast networks’ share dipped to 40 percent from 42 percent, according to an analysis of Nielsen Media Research data released last week by media buying agency MediaVest.
As a point of comparison, the networks claimed 46 percent of the 18-49 audience four years ago, when cable’s share was only 37 percent.To make matters worse, the broadcast networks aren’t likely to ever reclaim dominance in primetime, predicts John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest.
“The number of cable networks out there that continue to grow is driving this,” he says. “This is not necessarily due to anything other than the fact that people are exercising their options in terms of expanding their viewing pool for the programs they are looking for.”
Cable’s share of the primetime audience has been steadily climbing for years. In fact, it has ranked No. 1 in households since the 2003-04 season.
In the past, cable’s growth largely reflected its growing penetration. As more subscribers signed on, ratings went up. But today, with cable and satellite penetration leveling off at about 85 percent, ratings are increasing simply because viewers in the 18-49 demographic increasingly prefer cable programs to network shows.
“Every year, more of the audience shifts from broadcast to cable, but recently cable has been picking up steam because of original programming, as opposed to the 1990s when it was due to coverage gains,” says Spiropoulos. “For cable to continue this kind of growth, it will become more dependent on the amount of money it invests in original programming.”
As a result, he says, the cable networks are touting a slew of original productions in this year’s upfront presentations.Cable’s lead in the 18-49 demographic this season has been exacerbated by the broadcast networks’ troubles, notably on Saturday and Thursday nights.
On Saturdays, the broadcast networks have essentially stopped programming in favor of putting costly productions on ad-rich weeknights. The broadcast networks’ aggregated rating on Saturdays so far this season is only a 7.2, compared to cable’s 16.1 rating.
Cable doesn’t yet have the lead on Thursday night, but its rating is growing as the broadcast networks are losing viewers. Cable’s 18-49 rating this season is a 14.4, up 6 percent, while the broadcast networks have a 17.6 rating, down 7 percent.
This trend began a few years back when NBC’s ratings tumbled after “Friends” went off the air.
Now, CBS is having problems on the night, says Spiropoulos.“Cable’s growth is not only on Saturday night, but it’s also on Monday and Thursday. Thursday is key,” he says. “That night is important for cable if they want to combat the broadcast networks. And in recent weeks, we’ve seen some pretty significant weakness with CBS’s lineup on that night.”
